Re: Post: Por qué la finitud de los recursos lleva a cambios abruptos en el comportamiento económico -AMT

Posted by jaimeguada on
URL: http://foro-crashoil.109.s1.nabble.com/Post-Por-que-la-finitud-de-los-recursos-lleva-a-cambios-abruptos-en-el-comportamiento-economico-AMT-tp29110p29166.html

Julio escribió

Te pego aquí lo que decía este hombre en el foro de Ron, jaimeaguada. Si andas regulín de inglés pásale el google traslator

Oilman2 says:
04/01/2016 AT 2:55 PM
I was over there 4 times in the last 2 years for work. The big runup in rig count was to maintain capacity. Remember that nitrogen injection has been ongoing there for some time, and there are many stranded globs in the reservoirs due to overpumping and coning during waterflood ops – hence all the geosteering in the horizontal wells and the ramping of rig count. The fact that ARAMCO is even employing horizontal drilling should have set off alarm bells years ago.

My first trip to KSA was long ago – the empty pipelines running across the sands far outnumber the full ones and it has been that way for well over a decade. My opinion is that Ghawars’ end is in sight, along with Safaniya, Manifa and others. This is simply based on what ARAMCO drilling ops are, not anything else. To frame it in layman’s terms – it greatly resembles what the East Texas field looked like as it declined, with every new technology they can wrap their arms around being brought into play. Cost is not an issue for them when deciding on tools or tech – recovery is. It wasn’t that way in 1995 or even 2000.

This isn’t going to happen like lightning, but even with the increased rig counts and wells put down, total production is not increasing appreciably. There was a reason that the KSA rig count hardly moved for many years – it didn’t need to. Today is not like yesteryear. My guts tell me that in the next few years, things will change more rapidly.

I am still working in the collapsing oil patch, but am not going back to KSA ever – conditions are growing worse for Anglos on the ground within the Kingdom, within Qatar and even in Egypt. I simply don’t want to get caught up in a revolt or in some other mess like I did in Colombia – it isn’t worth the risk. You guys can debate the numbers and such all day long – just like at TOD. I work in this business, and what I see in terms of well types, ops and tech deployed speaks volumes to me about what is happening downhole.

Peak Oil is like watching a train wreck in slo-mo, and it would behoove many to just accept that it was never going to be a bell curve or it wouldn’t require ‘normalizing’. The industry innovates rapidly because of huge money thrown at it, which throws a lot of otherwise great prognostications under the bus in a short time. FWIW, what I see in MENA indicates a lot of struggling to make the numbers. The fact that most MENA operators have tested a shale oil well or two is also an eye-peeler…
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Saludos.

Muchas cenkius jejejej