Re: Post: En transición hacia un período de precios altos del petróleo (AMT)

Posted by Julio on
URL: http://foro-crashoil.109.s1.nabble.com/Post-En-transicion-hacia-un-periodo-de-precios-altos-del-petroleo-AMT-tp33185p34760.html

Os transcribo la opinión de un experto tras echar un ojo al informe de la AIE 2016 (el resumen) que acaba de salir ..."It looks like this month (Nov.) will probably be a new global oil supply record barring major disruptions anywhere. But it gets more apparent with each report they are concerned with a sudden drop in supply in the medium term (I think supply will decline gradually through 2017 but then accelerate in 2Q2018 and fall off a cliff in 2019 given current project planning. It is now becoming too late to do much that will impact supplies then and with the likelihood of low prices through next year and few attractive recent discoveries (and getting worse each quarter in that respect) there are unlikely to be many more FIDs next year than this – I think only 12 so far and more gas than oil – therefore that supply drought will probably extend through 2020. Decline rates could increase on existing fields at the same time as in-fill drilling marginal gains start to decline and the impact of reduced maintenance and brownfield spending during these low price years start to impact."