Re: Perspectivas de producción y consumo de petróleo 2017-2018
Posted by Julio on
URL: http://foro-crashoil.109.s1.nabble.com/Perspectivas-de-produccion-y-consumo-de-petroleo-2017-2018-tp37625p37734.html
Rebuscando un poco y para que no sean aportaciones parciales de campos concretos, hay un comentario general que hizo hace unas semanas (tampoco es que de una visión del panorama general a menudo, sino que se centra más en la evolución de proyectos y campos puntuales), y que te dejo a continuación. Presta especial atención a las dos ultimas líneas.
There are still at least 18 months to go before the pipeline of projects started in the high price period dries up. The are many large projects offshore Africa and Brazil due, plus smaller, but not insignificant, ones in the North Sea, also Kashegan Ph. II and Khurais expansion. GoM looks like the first area to have really slowed to a crawl – I don’t know of anything now until Stampede next year, but several projects are still ramping up.
Russian projects ramp up over many years, I think this is mostly because of the nature of the fields but also partly because of pipeline limits (i.e. they can only increase flow as other fields decline to make room) although there was some news last year that a couple of major bottlenecks had been removed. Nevertheless there were a lot of big projects last year that are still on the rise and will have impact for a few years, but only smaller new ones this year and next. A couple of bigger ones in 2020 but again they take time to reach plateau. There has been commentary that they have increased in-fill drilling in their older fields to maintain production – that has to cease to be effective some time I guess.
With the dearth of new conventional discoveries companies are stuck with the older and expensive projects that were at the back of the cue even with oil at $100 (including a lot of Tar Sands, which at the moment has political issues added on top of economics although a couple of smaller projects that were half finished have been restarted), or they try and find a way to make money and book reserves in Iraq and Iran, or they jump into the Permian, which seems to be the preferred option at the moment.
So far there is not a lot of news indicating new FIDs for large projects – Chevron announced some pre-FEEDS in the GoM (that probably means plateau production is 8 years away), there is FEED on Liza, the one good recent oil find and that was always going to be fast tracked, I don’t think even Mad Dog is fully sanctioned although work is progressing. Also there seems an effort now, at least in the IOCs and larger independents, to pay down some debt – or at least not take so much on – in preference to take on huge development commitments, that could change with a really big price increase, but not so much with smaller increments.
It’s early days in the reporting cycle but I think the supply cliff sometime in 2018/19 is looking likely to be steeper than I thought last year.
Si vuelve a hacer una previsión general ya te informaré.
Un saludo.
URL: http://foro-crashoil.109.s1.nabble.com/Perspectivas-de-produccion-y-consumo-de-petroleo-2017-2018-tp37625p37734.html
Hombre Juan Carlos, eso que me pides es una labor ingente dado que este hombre (de seudónimo Geoge Kaplan), no escribe post sino que participa en los comentarios, lo cual da cientos de aportaciones mensuales...
Julio, si estoy tan equivocado sería pertinente que nos proporciones fuentes de los comentarios de este forero del blog de Ron Patterson. Es importante conocer que fuentes utiliza para asegurar que en el 2018 estaremos en un cuello de botella.
Mis comentarios suelo acompañarlos con fuentes que respaldan mis opiniones. Fuentes fiables como la que originó este tema proveniente de la AIE. Por lo menos Julio, nos tienes que dar el nombre del forero, sus comentarios en el blog de Ron y las fuentes informativas de la que se nutre.
Un cordial saludo
Rebuscando un poco y para que no sean aportaciones parciales de campos concretos, hay un comentario general que hizo hace unas semanas (tampoco es que de una visión del panorama general a menudo, sino que se centra más en la evolución de proyectos y campos puntuales), y que te dejo a continuación. Presta especial atención a las dos ultimas líneas.
There are still at least 18 months to go before the pipeline of projects started in the high price period dries up. The are many large projects offshore Africa and Brazil due, plus smaller, but not insignificant, ones in the North Sea, also Kashegan Ph. II and Khurais expansion. GoM looks like the first area to have really slowed to a crawl – I don’t know of anything now until Stampede next year, but several projects are still ramping up.
Russian projects ramp up over many years, I think this is mostly because of the nature of the fields but also partly because of pipeline limits (i.e. they can only increase flow as other fields decline to make room) although there was some news last year that a couple of major bottlenecks had been removed. Nevertheless there were a lot of big projects last year that are still on the rise and will have impact for a few years, but only smaller new ones this year and next. A couple of bigger ones in 2020 but again they take time to reach plateau. There has been commentary that they have increased in-fill drilling in their older fields to maintain production – that has to cease to be effective some time I guess.
With the dearth of new conventional discoveries companies are stuck with the older and expensive projects that were at the back of the cue even with oil at $100 (including a lot of Tar Sands, which at the moment has political issues added on top of economics although a couple of smaller projects that were half finished have been restarted), or they try and find a way to make money and book reserves in Iraq and Iran, or they jump into the Permian, which seems to be the preferred option at the moment.
So far there is not a lot of news indicating new FIDs for large projects – Chevron announced some pre-FEEDS in the GoM (that probably means plateau production is 8 years away), there is FEED on Liza, the one good recent oil find and that was always going to be fast tracked, I don’t think even Mad Dog is fully sanctioned although work is progressing. Also there seems an effort now, at least in the IOCs and larger independents, to pay down some debt – or at least not take so much on – in preference to take on huge development commitments, that could change with a really big price increase, but not so much with smaller increments.
It’s early days in the reporting cycle but I think the supply cliff sometime in 2018/19 is looking likely to be steeper than I thought last year.
Si vuelve a hacer una previsión general ya te informaré.
Un saludo.
"Maybe all the oil we can afford is already behind pipe"
Rune Likvern
Rune Likvern
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